The dream scenario

Lately, Republicans and Conservatives are feeling depressed, because they think Obama’s got the nomination locked up. Never fear, I have a solution.

The latest polls show Obama at 47% and McCain at 41%. How can McCain make up this deficit? By introducing the correct third party candidate. And I don’t mean Bob Barr.

No, I mean Alan Keyes. Yes,, the OTHER black candidate for president. Did you forget about him? The media would like you to, because he’s the biggest threat to Obama.

Think about it. Obama has 90% of the black vote against McCain. What if Keyes cuts into that vote? Since neither candidate can muster 50%, there’s plenty of room for third party candidates. And the beauty of it is, Keyes takes votes from Obama that McCain never had a chance at anyway.

So here’s how it might break down. Keyes gets 5%, Obama gets 47%, and McCain gets 48%. Which is a victory in more ways than one, because black candidates will have received over 50% of the vote for the first time in American history. Conservatives can club the advanced and sophisticated elites over the head with that when they try to complain that Obama lost.

Don’t like either major party candidate? Vote for Alan Keyes. You might really like the results come election day.

For years, the talk in the golf world has been about Tiger proofing courses – growing the rough deep, narrowing the fairways, toughening up the majors so that Tiger can’t win them by 10 strokes over anyone else. It’s even spilled into the videogame market, where home based PGA tour wannabees can vary the level of difficulty in their virtual golf games. And yet, Tiger keeps winning majors, inexorably closing in on Jack Nicklaus’ record of 18 majors. But that doesn’t mean the Tiger proofing has had no effect. In fact, if you examine the effect that Tiger proofing has had, you’ll see that Phil Mickelson’s chance to win majors has been virtually eliminated.

Let’s take the major venues, one by one. Most experts agree that the British open, with it’s wild winds, waist high rough, head high bunkers, and unpredictable conditions is “real mans” golf – the toughest test of any of the majors. American courses may be lengthy, but golfers can almost always find their ball in the rough, and I have yet to see a golfer play the ball backwards out of any American bunkers. So there’s been no Tiger proofing of the British open because it’s not needed. Predictably, Mickelson has never won a British open, and rarely is competitive.

Next, let’s take the US open. Wherever it is, the fairways and greens always seem to be bone dry, which challenges everyone to stay below par. You have to hit fairways to win the US open, something Mickelson has never been accurate enough to do. The surprising thing is that Mickelson has gotten close enough to post 4 runner up finishes. Some people take those runner up finishes as a clue that Phil will eventually win a US open. I take it the opposite way – he’s been lucky to be runner up there, and his luck is rapidly running out at age 38.

How about the PGA? Well, Mickelson won once there in 2005, so there’s a glimmer of hope. However, the PGA has felt the competitive pressure from the other majors, and has copied the Tiger proofing steps to try to restore their credibility. This years PGA looked just like a US open setup. Phil’s game, which is based on length and the ability to make recovery shots out of the rough, cannot survive in such conditions. Look at the contrast between “regular” courses and the majors. Mickelson can and does win 2-4 events a year when he can overpower other golfers and the rough is moderate length. His inability to hit fairways can be ignored. But once Tiger proofing takes hold and you are forced to hit fairways, Mickelson’s game drops a notch. He’s had several years to adjust, even going without a driver for a couple of days at the US open, and nothing has worked. This year, with Tiger out injured, Phil could not take advantage of Tiger’s absence. So we can eliminate any more PGA trophies from Phil’s potential major collection. He just doesn’t have the game.

With 3 out of 4 majors eliminated, Phil’s only chance to win more majors is at the Masters. With 2 Masters wins under his belt, you’d think Mickelson’s chances are good to win another. However, his results in the last 2 Masters have not been encouraging. If he hits the fairways, his putter gives out on him. If he makes putts, his iron play goes haywire. He’s certainly not shown the confidence there recently that a past champion should have.

Then there’s the Winged Foot factor. Since his collapse in 2006, Mickelson has scored a top 10 finish in only one major. You can make a good argument the Phil’s confidence is shot. Even more telling, his wins at the “regular” tournaments, once by wide margins, are now narrow wins in playoffs(Riviera, 2008) or close shaves(Colonial, 2008) or losses in playoffs(FBR, 2008 and Riviera, 2007). Other golfers aren’t afraid of Mickelson anymore, knowing that he can be beaten.

Mickelson remains the most popular golfer on tour, with massive crowd support and lucrative endorsements. And he may retain his hold on the #2 ranking. But anyone looking for a Nadal like pursuit and overtaking of the dominant Federer #1 type player will be sorely disappointed.

 

Still thinking they can game the system

By Andrew Vander Dussen

Faced with imminent loss in November, the Republicans are trying to change their strategy. New strategies included drilling, fixing unfunded entitlements, and winning the war in Iraq.

Let’s start with drilling. The Republicans newfound interest in drilling would be more convincing if they’d done anything about it from 2000-2006. They had a Republican president, Senate, and House. What better time to reverse Clinton’s position and start drilling? And yet, they did nothing. Which makes them last minute johnnies, crying now about a situation that was in their power to fix years ago.

How about the unfunded entitlements? Well, the impending 50 trillion or so crisis that they tell us about now must not have been there during Bush’s first term when they passed No Child Left Behind or the shiny new prescription drug benefit. If it was there, you think they would have restrained themselves from any new programs and taken care of the existing ones, don’t you think?

The other thing is, this fiscal responsibility scenario doesn’t seem to involve reduced spending. No, it means higher taxes “for the good of the country”. Are we to return to the bad old days of the 1950s when the Democrats spend all the money and the Republicans raise taxes to pay for it? Actually it’s worse now, because the Republicans spend money like the Democrats now too. Which is why the Republicans can’t generate any interest in their party base. I wonder why?

Which leaves their trump card. The Iraq war. Better vote for McCain or else! And you know what, they’re probably right. Which explains their lack of urgency on any other issue. That’s their ace in the hole. No matter how much conservatives dislike Republicans for their open border policies or not protecting the dollar or big fat pork barrel projects, they know people will vote for them out of fear of Barack Obama.

If you want to vote McCain for that reason, I understand. Just keep your eyes open, and be aware of what you’re getting. Not less government, not less entitlements, not border security, not less diversity pushed down your throat. No, all you’ll get is a continued effort towards victory in Afghanistan and Iraq. No more than that. So don’t expect anything more.